Kuechler_Jacob_Kearney_Jim_TreeRings.mp3

Jim Kearney [] A German who studied forestry in Gutenberg, Jacob Küechler, immigrated to Texas in the 1840s.

Jim Kearney [] And he's a very interesting guy because he led the Fredericksburg Convention at the Battle of the Nueces, which was fought between Unionists in the Hill Country, German Unionists, and the Confederate Army in 1862.

Jim Kearney [] But he was a staunch Unionist. So, after the war he was appointed as General Land Office Commissioner during Reconstruction.

Jim Kearney [] In 1857, '58, '59, there was another horrible drought in Texas, a general drought. Just as bad as the [19] '50s.

Jim Kearney [] And that had all kinds of repercussions. The Indians went back on the war path. They were running out of buffalo in all West Texas, you know.

Jim Kearney [] But anyway, he did a systematic study of tree rings in the Hill Country and he published it in the 1860 Texas Almanac. It's available on-line.

Jim Kearney [] This is the first systematic study of tree rings. He is the father of dendrochronology... It's the first systematic study.

Jim Kearney [] And he showed, going back to 1700, that drought is a recurring phenomenon. Just like day follows night, wet spells are followed by dry spells.

Jim Kearney [] And the worst droughts were not in the 19th century; they were in the 18th. And he could tell it by tree rings.

Jim Kearney [] So, will there be another big drought? Yes, there will be another big drought.

Jim Kearney [] And we know now that it is related to La Nina. They didn't know that then, but we know it now.

Jim Kearney [] And we're in a La Nina, a strong La Nina. So, the Pacific cools. So, less moisture evaporates up and is carried, carried over the continental United States.

Jim Kearney [] So, what's going to happen with all this industry and all this population?

Jim Kearney [] I mean, there's going to be some soul-searching. It'll be like Tehran in Iran, you know. Cities are going to run out of water.